Casemiro Tercio Carvalho
Port of Santos

Spatialized Port Competitiveness (SPC): A New Framework for Demand Forecasting and Strategic Planning

This capstone paper introduces a framework that compares inland transportation costs, port costs, and service levels to distinguish a port's "captive" cargo from "contestable" cargo it could win from competitors. Applied to Brazil's Paranaguá and Antonina Port Complex, it revealed growth opportunities prior forecasting had missed, offering ports a practical tool for demand forecasting, infrastructure prioritization, and cargo attraction strategy.